2021 Oscar Predictions - Screenplays

The Academy Awards are upon us as they air this Sunday at 7 p.m. CDT.

With that, I'll be predicting the "big five" category winners leading up to the ceremony. I will include both original and adapted screenplays in this entry and then both supporting and leading acting in the male and female categories in future posts.

I try to do this every year as I always have my picks of what I think is deserving but also what I think will win. Sometimes, they are the same which is always nice.

Without further ado, here are the nominees for Best Original and Adapted Screenplays.

Original: "Judas and the Black Messiah," "Minari," "Promising Young Woman," "Sound of Metal," "Trial of the Chicago Seven"

I think this one really comes down to "Minari" and "Trial of the Chicago Seven." Aaron Sorkin is arguably the greatest screenwriter working today (he's my favorite) so it would not be surprising if he took home the award as the film is right up the Academy's alley. Although, he has not one the award in a decade when he won for "The Social Network." It will really depend on if they want to give Netflix the satisfaction of producing Sorkin's film a big award since there is some tension of whether or not streaming films should be eligible for awards. If this happens, "the Chicago Seven" will win Best Picture because 9 times out of 10 if a film wins one of the screenplay awards, it wins Best Picture. Although, I think it is going to go to "Minari" because the film seems to be really loved by the Academy and they want to award it in some capacity and since it is not quite a Best Picture winner and it is not nominated for Best Director, the script is their best option. Lee Isaac Chung is very lovable and the script is deserving so I would be probably more happy if he won over Sorkin.

Adapted: "Borat: Subsequent Movie Film," "The Father," "Nomadland," "The White Tiger," "One Night in Miami"

While I loved the screenplay for "One Night in Miami" and it would be my personal choice, it looks like based on other award ceremonies and traction, "The Father" is running away with this one. It is a intimately crafted picture about an elder dealing with dementia and the script is told from his perspective, so there are many loops and turns that make writing about confusion really relatable and understanding. Although, no one should be surprised if "Nomadland" upsets in this category as that is also a beautifully written screenplay by Chloé Zhao. It is the film to beat this year for the big prizes.

Stay tuned for my predictions in the acting, directing, and best picture categories!