2022 Oscar Predictions

The 94th annual Academy Awards air tonight at 7:00 PM CDT and per usual, there are some fantastic unexpected nominees, ones that have been a lock for a nominee, and ones that left us film lovers scratching our heads.

Nonetheless, I'll always watch the ceremony and see if my picks take home the prize, even if they're not the ones I would like to see win. The Academy has its own system of who or what it likes to give awards to and it's not difficult to follow.

All one has to do is look at the track record for Hollywood's biggest night and see who took home what for which movie in previous years, and you'll find they often repeat the same process and award the same types of films and performances.

With that, here are my predictions for the big five categories.

Best Picture Nominees

Nightmare Alley

King Richard

Dune

Drive My Car

West Side Story

Belfast

Don't Look Up

CODA

The Power of the Dog

Licorice Pizza

Winner: The Power of the Dog

Should win: West Side Story

Could win: CODA

The Power of the Dog seems to be leading the way and it fits the Academy's memo of dark, (but not too dark) original, realism, grounded. These are the types of films that have won Best Picture over the last 10 years or so. Epic, big-budget films winning the top prize seem to be a thing of the past.

The film also racked up 12 nominations so surely it has to take home some big ones. However, The Irishman garnered 10 nominations in 2019 and didn't win one.

I simply loved West Side Story. It had the best filmmaking of the year and is what cinema is all about. It's glamorous, show-stopping, dazzling, and fresh. Spielberg knocked it out of the park. Honestly, the only thing I think is keeping this from sweeping is its predecessor already accomplished that feat back in 1962.

CODA could very well end up being the winner. It's picking up steam with wins at the BAFTAs and other award ceremonies. It's wonderful, heartfelt, and just quite lovely. Although, we have not seen a family film of its caliber win the award in some time.

Best Director

Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog

Paul Thomas Anderson - Licorice Pizza

Ryusuke Hamaguchi - Drive My Car

Steven Spielberg - West Side Story

Kenneth Branagh - Belfast

Winner: Jane Campion

Should win: Steven Spielberg

Could win: Kenneth Branagh

Jane Campion is almost a shoe-in for this prize. She's a celebrated filmmaker that has been around for nearly 30 years and does an exceptional job on Power of the Dog. She was also the first female to be nominated for Best Director with The Piano (1993).

I think the Academy is looking to finally give her that award and also make it the first time a woman has won in back-to-back years. This one should be locked up.

Best Leading/Supporting Actor

Leading:

Will Smith - King Richard

Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth

Andrew Garfield - Tick Tick Boom!

Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog

Javier Bardem - Being the Ricardos

Winner: Will Smith

Should win: Will Smith

Could win: Andrew Garfield

This is another category that is all locked up and, similar to Campion, Will Smith is likely to get this one because he is such a celebrated and talented actor who has been nominated but never won. The Academy has a tradition of being more lenient in their decision when these situations arise.

Not to say he isn't deserving, he is, but those other factors definitely boost his chances. For a while it was neck and neck with Andrew Garfield but Smith seems to be running away with it in tracking from over the last month or so.

Supporting:

Troy Kotsur - CODA

Ciaran Hinds - Belfast

J.K. Simmons - Being the Ricardos

Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Power of the Dog

Jesse Plemons - The Power of the Dog

Winner: Troy Kotsur

Should win: Troy Kotsur

Could win: N/A

Troy Kotsur. Nuff said. He's won them all and his performance made me cry without using any words. This is his to lose.

Congrats, Troy!

Best Leading/Supporting Actress

Leading:

Nicole Kidman - Being the Ricardos

Penelope Cruz - Parallel Mothers

Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Olivia Coleman - The Lost Daughter

Kristen Stewart - Spencer

Winner: Jessica Chastain

Should win: Kristen Stewart

Could win: Nicole Kidman

Jessica Chastain has made her way to the top of the pack after being uncertain of securing a nomination. She's magnificent has Tammy Faye but I was afraid the Academy had simply forgotten about her film, but apparently not as latest tracking show her taking home the prize tonight. Her win at the SAG awards certainly shot her up to the top.

I was really surprised to see Lady Gaga miss out on a nomination for her work in House of Gucci with Penelope Cruz likely taking her spot. I figured she was going to win.

However, I wish Kristen Stewart would take home her first Oscar here. She is amazing as Princess Diana and gives a delicate, vulnerable performance. She's the most deserving of all the nominees in my eyes.

Supporting:

Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog

Jessie Buckley - The Lost Daughter

Aunjanue Ellis - King Richard

Judi Dench - Belfast

Ariana DeBose - West Side Story

Winner: Ariana DeBose

Should win: Judi Dench

Could win: Kirsten Dunst

History is set to repeat itself in the supporting actress category with Ariana DeBose taking home the award for the same character Rita Moreno won for back in 1962 in the original West Side Story. If it can't win the big prizes again, I'm perfectly fine with it winning this one.

However, I do think Judi Dench is slightly more deserving. Her final scene in Belfast is a gut-punch.

Best Original/Adapted Screenplay

Original:

Don't Look Up

Licorice Pizza

King Richard

Belfast

The Worst Person in the World

Winner: Belfast

Should win: Licorice Pizza

Could win: N/A

I think the original screenplay will go to one of these two films. Belfast seems to be loved by the Academy and since it is not quite up to snuff for the bigger categories, screenplay is a safe bet for awarding Branagh.

Although, I want one of my favorite filmmakers, Paul Thomas Anderson, to win! The man has been nominated for 11 Oscars and never won. It's past time! Also, Licorice Pizza was my favorite movie of 2021 and I'd hate to see it go home empty-handed.

Adapted:

The Lost Daughter

Drive My Car

CODA

The Power of the Dog

Dune

Winner: The Power of the Dog

Should win: The Lost Daughter

Could win: CODA

This has been the most difficult category to predict. Tracking originally had Maggie Gyllenhaal winning for her debut feature The Lost Daughter, which I think is the most deserving as it is a fantastic script with time jumps handled seamlessly.

However, Jane Campion has since jumped to the front for Power of the Dog with CODA also making a last-minute punch for the award. I'm really not sure what will win here tonight. It could be any of the three.

Nonetheless, we'll see in less than an hour.

If you're still here, thanks for reading and on with the show!